This seminar is an introduction to the use of some practical tools for short-term forecasting at central banks with a special focus on inflation and GDP forecasting. The seminar will present a summary of relevant theory and provide hands-on practical sessions using real data. The seminar design is specifically based on the needs and challenges faced by developing/emerging economies in real time forecasting. An introduction to programming for computer-based applications will also be provided during the seminar.
• Theoretical background and introduction to the forecasting framework
• An introduction to programming in Eviews for forecasting
• Construction and estimation of basic univariate and multivariate models for forecasting
• Some practical aspects of short-term inflation and GDP forecasting
• Topics in a data rich environment
• Forecast evaluation methods
Target Audience: The seminar is designed for experts from central banks and related policy institutions who are responsible for short-term forecasting. Participants are expected to be familiar with basic econometrics. Participants are encouraged to share their country experiences during the seminar.